It’s almost election day. Most people in this country tend to vote for their wallets. Personally, I think there are more important things to base the decision on, but I’m pretty sure I’m in the minority there. Regardless, a lot of people who are going to vote for McCain are going to do it because “OMG Obama will tax me more!” That’s very likely not true, unless you’re in the top 2% of the country in income, or so. And if you are, shut the fuck up, no one wants to hear you complain. Check out http://www.electiontaxes.com to see an estimate of what your taxes will actually be like under their proposed plans. Note: It’s likely neither candidate will implement these plans exactly as President, but there’s only so much you can do to try to figure it out.
I took one economics class in college, and don’t remember most of it. I’m clearly not qualified to figure out which tax plan, or what method in general, would be appropriate for a strong economy. You know who just might be, though? Economists. From the Wikipedia link:
My friend, who wrote for eToro Opiniones Negativas at the time, showed me a study in the Southern Economic Journal, which found that “71 percent of American economists believe the distribution of income in the US should be more equal, and 81 percent feel that the redistribution of income is a legitimate role for government.” In terms of political orientation 63% identified as progressive and less than 20% as conservative/libertarian. with registered Democrats outnumbering registered Republicans 2.5:1.
Now, I know many Republicans want to elect “regular folk” who are “just like they are” (note: John McCain owns 7 or 8 houses, Sarah Palin just spent $150k on clothes and makeup [funded by your campaign donations, and then being given to charity… spread the wealth!]), but I personally prefer to look to people who are smarter and more qualified than I am to make these sorts of decisions. And if 63% of economists support a progressive tax policy, who am I to argue?
April was here on vacation this week, and (inspired by bloodyp), we decided to carve some pumpkins. I’ve never really done it before, but the hardest part ended up being deciding what to do. We ended up going with these:
The Red Ring of Death pumpkin has been getting a lot of attention. It was linked on DVICE, and then picked up by Gizmodo. It’s got a blinking red light inside. I want to fix it to make the middle part of it green, like it’s supposed to be, but I’m not sure I’ll be able to do it. I think the funniest part of this whole thing is that a few people on Giz think they’re not real, that they’re photoshopped images. The others are an emoticon (“Bob!”), the Obama logo, and yes, the Ubuntu logo.
I also got an email from a reporter at a news service who wanted to write an article about them. I wonder if anything will ever happen with that.
I don’t think they’ll last quite until Halloween. I will have to make more. I have big plans in store for that, but I’m not sure I can pull it off. Stay tuned…*
*this is not a guarantee that I will ever write any more about this
I watched the final Presidential debate on Wednesday night. It was the only debate I’ve watched this election season. During the debate, a guy Barack Obama talked to, Joe the Plumber, was brought up quite a bit. McCain brought him up so he could point out Obama saying “spread the wealth around,” which he did say while he was talking to Joe. But that was the only thing McCain took from that conversation. He ignored the substance and got his sound bite, which is typical of politics these days.
Unfortunately, ABC doesn’t let me embed videos here, so you’ll have to click through to see the whole conversation: http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/10/spread-the-weal.html. There’s video of the whole thing, and a transcript. What is clear to me from this video: Joe the Plumber knows the answer he’s going to get, has no intention of ever voting for Obama, and just wanted to get him to say “Yes, I’m going to raise your taxes.” I’ll be the first to admit nothing McCain can say would make me vote for him, either, but I’m not out there asking him questions I already know the answer to.
In an interview with Katie Couric, quoted in this NYT article (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/us/politics/17joe.html?_r=2&partner=rssnyt&oref=slogin&oref=slogin), Joe said he wanted to “ask one of these guys a question, and really corner them and get them to answer a question for once instead of tap dancing around it. And unfortunately I asked the question, but I still got a tap dance.” Watch the video. He didn’t get a tap dance, he got a very clear answer from Obama: Yes, I’ll raise your taxes on anything over $250k, but your health care costs will go down. Also, if my plan had been in place the past 15 years you’d been working as a plumber, you’d have been able to buy your own business sooner.
It seems to me Joe the Plumber is just a Republican trying to get an “I’m going to raise your taxes” sound bite out of Obama. He didn’t get it, so he claims he got no answer to his question at all.
In any case, you too can now be Joe the Plumber…
T-shirt from TeeFury. They sell a new one every day, so tomorrow there will be a different one on their homepage.
Also, not really related, but found on the comments on TeeFury:
I went to Game 3 of the NLCS tonight at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers scored 5 in the first, and beat the Phillies 7-2. Great game. When buying my ticket, I searched StubHub for a seat that would let me get a picture similar to the one I got at PETCO. I succeeded.
I think I want to try to get the same shot at other stadiums, too.
Here are my picks for the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year this year. These choices reflect who I think should win, not necessarily who will actually take home the awards. I tend to view these things differently than most of the official voters, probably because I believe the “P” in MVP stands for PLAYER, not Playoff or Playoff-bound. In my opinion, a player can be immensely valuable to their team, even if that team is struggling or in last place. Contributing more wins for a team at the bottom of the standings can, in some cases, be more impactful than adding a few wins to a division leader or wild card contender. If you disagree, that’s perfectly fine—you’re entitled to your opinion, but let’s keep the debate out of the comments. It’s like arguing politics—no one’s going to change their mind. On a related note, I don’t place much stock in RBIs as a sole indicator of value since they depend heavily on opportunities. A low RBI total doesn’t bother me. Additionally, I’m not a big fan of using win/loss records to judge pitchers, especially when you consider cases like Santana’s this year. He had 7 blown saves and minimal run support, which skewed his record; he should have been 22-6 instead of 16-7. I’m also not opposed to awarding the MVP to a pitcher—though not this year. Speaking of statistics and analysis, I recently stumbled upon 파워볼사이트, which got me thinking about how much numbers and probabilities play a role not just in baseball, but in many areas of interest, including offshore gambling. This year, however, my MVP vote would still go to a position player. In 2006, though, I would have given it to Santana instead of his teammate.
Okay, enough of that, on to the awards. I’ll start with the AL, because I care about it less.
Note: The names mentioned below are not the only people I considered; just because someone is left out from my rambling doesn’t mean I didn’t think they deserved to be in the running.
AL MVP: I have no fucking clue. Carlos Quentin was going to be the obvious choice until he got hurt. Milton Bradley has had an amazing season, but hasn’t played quite enough games for me. I don’t see any clear-cut winners here. If Grady Sizemore was hitting .290 instead of .268, I’d go with him.
- My pick: Dustin Pedroia
- Runner up: Joe Mauer
- Who I think will win:
Justin Morneau(struggled the last week and his team didn’t make it). No idea. Pedroia maybe, but Youkilis will split the Red Sox vote.
AL Cy Young: Is there really a question here? Cliff Lee is 22-3 for a mediocre team, and he’s earned every bit of that. I don’t wanna hear anything about Francisco Rodriguez. There are at least half a dozen closers this year that would have 62 saves if they’d been given 69 chances. An 89-90% save percentage is typical for top of the line closers. The only difference this year has been opportunities.
- My pick: Cliff Lee
- Runner up: Roy Halladay
- Who I think will win: Cliff Lee
AL Rookie of the Year:
- Evan Longoria
- Runner-up: eh
- Who I think will win: Evan Longoria
Now, on to the NL, which I have followed a whole lot more closely.
NL MVP: Lots of good choices here. The best hitter in the league is clearly Albert Pujols, but he did miss a little bit of time. In the absence of an obvious choice, the contending team factor does come into play some for me. Four Mets are legitimate candidates (seriously, this isn’t just my bias), as is Ryan Howard. Chipper Jones missed too much time. Hanley Ramirez hasn’t been quite efficient enough with his stolen base percentage (barely ahead of the 70% break-even point). Manny Ramirez wasn’t in the league long enough. Tough call.
- My pick: Albert Pujols
- Runner up: Lance Berkman
- Who I think will win: Ryan Howard
NL Cy Young: My pick here is going to shock a lot of people, I think. Brandon Webb struggled down the stretch. He has the high win total, but is only 9th in ERA. Santana has the best ERA, and is up there in strikeouts, and should have more wins. I believe he also leads the league in quality starts, though a 4.5 ERA is hardly “quality”. Tim Lincecum’s ERA is only a touch behind Santana’s, and he’s got more wins for an awful team. He’d get my vote over Santana if not for the guy I’m going to pick.
- My pick: Brad Lidge. Yes, you read that right. Converted 100% of his 41 saves. Didn’t lose a game. Most of his saves in a high-pressure situation, and a lot of them in games closer than three runs. His ERA was under 2. 92 strikeouts in 69.1 innings pitched. That’s almost 12K/9. About the only knock against him I can find is he’s walked too many batters. As far as I’m concerned, he’s been the best pitcher in the league this year.
- Runner up: Tim Lincecum
- Who I think will win: Tim Lincecum
NL Rookie of the Year: Easy.
- My pick: Geovany Soto
- Runner(s) up: Joey Votto and Jair Jurrjens
- Who I think will win: Geovany Soto
donkeypuncher Can Lilly do it too? Holy geez.
metsfan @donkeypuncher that would be awesome, but i’m about to start watching, so there’s no way…
[Mark Loretta, the first batter I watch, gets the first hit of the game off of Ted Lilly. In the 7th inning.]
metsfan @donkeypuncher told you. my fault.
maigrey @metsfan THANKS FOR RUINING IT ALAN
donkeypuncher @metsfan damn you!
thisisnotapril 
@donkeypuncher @metsfan @maigrey if alan is runing anything that has to do with the Cubs, i am all for it.
Update: That was the Astros only hit of the game, though Lilly came out after the 7th.
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