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Here are my picks for the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year this year. These choices reflect who I think should win, not necessarily who will actually take home the awards. I tend to view these things differently than most of the official voters, probably because I believe the “P” in MVP stands for PLAYER, not Playoff or Playoff-bound. In my opinion, a player can be immensely valuable to their team, even if that team is struggling or in last place. Contributing more wins for a team at the bottom of the standings can, in some cases, be more impactful than adding a few wins to a division leader or wild card contender. If you disagree, that’s perfectly fine—you’re entitled to your opinion, but let’s keep the debate out of the comments. It’s like arguing politics—no one’s going to change their mind. On a related note, I don’t place much stock in RBIs as a sole indicator of value since they depend heavily on opportunities. A low RBI total doesn’t bother me. Additionally, I’m not a big fan of using win/loss records to judge pitchers, especially when you consider cases like Santana’s this year. He had 7 blown saves and minimal run support, which skewed his record; he should have been 22-6 instead of 16-7. I’m also not opposed to awarding the MVP to a pitcher—though not this year. Speaking of statistics and analysis, I recently stumbled upon 파워볼사이트, which got me thinking about how much numbers and probabilities play a role not just in baseball, but in many areas of interest, including offshore gambling. This year, however, my MVP vote would still go to a position player. In 2006, though, I would have given it to Santana instead of his teammate.
Okay, enough of that, on to the awards. I’ll start with the AL, because I care about it less.
Note: The names mentioned below are not the only people I considered; just because someone is left out from my rambling doesn’t mean I didn’t think they deserved to be in the running.
AL MVP: I have no fucking clue. Carlos Quentin was going to be the obvious choice until he got hurt. Milton Bradley has had an amazing season, but hasn’t played quite enough games for me. I don’t see any clear-cut winners here. If Grady Sizemore was hitting .290 instead of .268, I’d go with him.
- My pick: Dustin Pedroia
- Runner up: Joe Mauer
- Who I think will win:
Justin Morneau(struggled the last week and his team didn’t make it). No idea. Pedroia maybe, but Youkilis will split the Red Sox vote.
AL Cy Young: Is there really a question here? Cliff Lee is 22-3 for a mediocre team, and he’s earned every bit of that. I don’t wanna hear anything about Francisco Rodriguez. There are at least half a dozen closers this year that would have 62 saves if they’d been given 69 chances. An 89-90% save percentage is typical for top of the line closers. The only difference this year has been opportunities.
- My pick: Cliff Lee
- Runner up: Roy Halladay
- Who I think will win: Cliff Lee
AL Rookie of the Year:
- Evan Longoria
- Runner-up: eh
- Who I think will win: Evan Longoria
Now, on to the NL, which I have followed a whole lot more closely.
NL MVP: Lots of good choices here. The best hitter in the league is clearly Albert Pujols, but he did miss a little bit of time. In the absence of an obvious choice, the contending team factor does come into play some for me. Four Mets are legitimate candidates (seriously, this isn’t just my bias), as is Ryan Howard. Chipper Jones missed too much time. Hanley Ramirez hasn’t been quite efficient enough with his stolen base percentage (barely ahead of the 70% break-even point). Manny Ramirez wasn’t in the league long enough. Tough call.
- My pick: Albert Pujols
- Runner up: Lance Berkman
- Who I think will win: Ryan Howard
NL Cy Young: My pick here is going to shock a lot of people, I think. Brandon Webb struggled down the stretch. He has the high win total, but is only 9th in ERA. Santana has the best ERA, and is up there in strikeouts, and should have more wins. I believe he also leads the league in quality starts, though a 4.5 ERA is hardly “quality”. Tim Lincecum’s ERA is only a touch behind Santana’s, and he’s got more wins for an awful team. He’d get my vote over Santana if not for the guy I’m going to pick.
- My pick: Brad Lidge. Yes, you read that right. Converted 100% of his 41 saves. Didn’t lose a game. Most of his saves in a high-pressure situation, and a lot of them in games closer than three runs. His ERA was under 2. 92 strikeouts in 69.1 innings pitched. That’s almost 12K/9. About the only knock against him I can find is he’s walked too many batters. As far as I’m concerned, he’s been the best pitcher in the league this year.
- Runner up: Tim Lincecum
- Who I think will win: Tim Lincecum
NL Rookie of the Year: Easy.
- My pick: Geovany Soto
- Runner(s) up: Joey Votto and Jair Jurrjens
- Who I think will win: Geovany Soto
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still think santana should win the cy young. it’s not his fault he got no run support … or not enough run support for the bullpen to hold his games for him… his numbers are insane, he had one bad outing all season, and two complete game wins in a four-day span at the end of the season. but these voters hate the mets so… let them give it to lincecum who pitched to no pressure since the second week of the season. whatever.